The goal of this project is to develop new management strategies to assist in the sustainable use of two key components of the Groundwater (GW) resource: pumping wells, used to obtain water for drinking purposes, and natural springs, typically employed for crop irrigation as well as for recreational use. We ground our activities on observations linked to two field sites in Italy. These sites are archetypal of two distinct realities and can be considered representative of diverse environmental settings and conditions of Europe-wide interest. As such, key features of our approach and techniques are resilience and adaptability, so that the approach can be readily adapted and employed in other European aquifer systems. Main steps are:
Because geological media are heterogeneous and exhibit spatial variations on many scales, prediction of subsurface flow and transport are formidable challenges. These tasks can only be rigorously tackled within a probabilistic framework. We apply and extend a recently developed scaling framework able to explain a wide range of observations about the way main statistics and probability distributions of environmental variables change with (space-time) scale. We adopt a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) approach aimed at increasing confidence in decision making through quantification of risk. Our approach to PRA involves considering information of various origins and synthesizing them in a descriptive and simplified set of indicators, easily transferable to decision makers. Casting the work in a Bayesian framework will enable updating risk indices by conditioning on data obtained in the experimentally-oriented parts of the project. Risk analysis will be based on assessing exposure of a given organism to concentrations of ECs, combined with ecotoxicological studies, as well as consideration of social implications. Ecotoxicity tools (bioassays) will allow quantitative assessment of potential deleterious effects to the environment of the ECs that may be present in the system. Relevant and application-oriented pilot scenarios jointly identified with the stakeholders involved in the project will be analyzed. This will lead to:
As such, PRA provides an umbrella under which knowledge of diverse nature can be blended so that a comprehensive decision can be taken by properly considering risk (Decision Making Under Risk). As a concrete and applicable product, we will provide a decision-making procedure and associated decision matrix for the sustainable use and management of groundwater for civil, agricultural and industrial activities and ecosystem preservation in the pilot scenarios. |